2027: El-Rufai’s detention could hurt APC, generate sympathy – SEDSAC director, other analysts express views

With the 2027 general elections drawing closer, the continued detention of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai has emerged as a potentially significant issue in Nigeria’s political landscape, particularly in the North.

El-Rufai has been detained since February 2026 in connection with corruption-related investigations and court proceedings. He was arraigned by the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission, ICPC, in March on money-laundering charges and pleaded not guilty.

His detention has become politically significant because of his prominence in Northern politics and his subsequent alignment with the opposition African Democratic Congress, ADC.

Political observers are divided over the likely consequences.

For the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, El-Rufai’s absence could represent an organisational advantage because it keeps an experienced political strategist away from direct opposition activities.

However, the same situation could eventually become a political disadvantage if Nigerians begin to see the detention as unfair or politically motivated.

Political scientist Dr Kabiru Said Sufi said public perception would determine the extent of the political consequences.

“People seem to be seeing it either as an elitist fight, the latest fight of the elites, or as a fight between the political class,” Sufi said.

He noted that the public anger that initially surrounded the matter had reduced and that opposition parties had failed to maintain pressure on the government.

“Surprisingly, even the opposition itself has been somehow quiet,” he said.

Sufi believes the APC has gained some strategic advantage because the matter has moved into the judicial process.

“I think the APC government has smartly moved the issue to the judiciary, passed on the issue to the judiciary, and there is less anger over the issue,” he said.

He explained that El-Rufai’s absence could affect opposition preparations because of his strategic experience.

“For now, the way it will help the APC is that one of the strategists of the opposition has been taken out of the equation.”

But Sufi said the outcome could have been different if public anger had remained strong.

“If the kind of interest and anger we have felt at the beginning had been sustained, then it would have worked against the APC government,” he said.

Comrade Aminu Rabiu Kano, a political commentator, said El-Rufai’s political profile made the case particularly sensitive.

“El-Rufai is not an ordinary politician. He is a former governor, a prominent northern political figure and one of the politicians who played a significant role in the emergence of the APC,” he said.

Kano said the government could argue that the matter was strictly an accountability and rule-of-law issue.

Nevertheless, he stressed that voters would ultimately judge the case based on their own perceptions.

“Whether that argument is correct or not is a separate question, but politically, perception matters,” Kano said.

He explained that although detention could prevent El-Rufai from participating physically in opposition activities, it did not mean that his political influence had disappeared.

“Detaining a politician can restrict his physical participation in politics, but it does not necessarily eliminate his political influence,” he said.

Kano further warned that the North should not be treated as one political constituency with identical voting behaviour.

He said Northern voters would consider security, economic conditions, government performance, candidates, alliances and local political structures when making their choices.

“If people predominantly see it as a genuine legal process, its electoral impact may be limited,” he said.

However, he added that a perception of political persecution could change the situation.

“If, however, a significant section of the electorate comes to perceive it as political persecution, then it could become a useful mobilising issue for the opposition.”

Comrade Umar Muhammad Kofar Naisa, Country Director of SEDSAC, believes the possibility of sympathy for El-Rufai should not be underestimated.

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“Continued detention of El-Rufai could hurt the APC, especially because he has many supporters as a former governor. It could generate sympathy among the people, and that sympathy may turn into votes on election day,” he said.

Kofar Naisa also highlighted El-Rufai’s involvement in the political process that produced the current administration.

“Anyone who knows the history of the Tinubu administration knows that El-Rufai played a role in bringing it to power. His arrest has further damaged the government’s image because people see it as going after opposition figures,” he said.

He further argued that the situation could affect the confidence of APC members who may disagree with the Federal Government.

“Continued detention could reduce the courage of some APC members because they may feel that whatever contribution they make could eventually lead them to the same situation El-Rufai has found himself in if they disagree with the Federal Government,” he said.

Meanwhile, Emir of Kano Muhammadu Sanusi II has questioned the consistency of Nigeria’s anti-corruption efforts.

Speaking to Channels Television in Lagos, Sanusi cited El-Rufai’s continued detention while stressing that the country has institutions and courts responsible for handling corruption allegations.

“An example is my brother Nasir El-Rufai who’s been denied bail. He’s been in detention for seven months, not having been convicted for anything,” he said.

The controversy surrounding El-Rufai is therefore likely to remain relevant as political parties prepare for 2027.

Whether the former governor’s detention ultimately weakens opposition mobilisation or generates sympathy against the APC will depend on public perception, the progress of the court proceedings and the ability of political parties to make the issue relevant to voters.

For the APC, the immediate advantage may be the removal of a prominent opposition strategist from active political engagement. But if the case increasingly becomes associated in the public mind with political persecution, the same development could become a campaign weapon for the opposition in the 2027 elections.