A political alliance between former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is already stirring new conversations ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Neither politician has officially emerged as the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) yet, but both men are seen as preferred candidates to contest against the ruling party and other strong opposition parties in the next election cycle.
Political analysts believe the talks are largely driven by the electoral realities of the 2023 presidential election where both candidates recorded impressive but regionally limited performances.
Obi garnered over six million votes across the country on the platform of the Labour Party and won 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). But in the north, he only won Plateau and Nasarawa states and the FCT, where he had a huge following.
Kwankwaso, who contested on the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), won Kano State and garnered close to one million votes, further cementing his influence in the North-West.
The proposed alliance is now raising questions whether Kwankwaso’s northern political structure could help Obi improve his acceptability across the region in 2027.
In an exclusive interview, political analyst and lecturer at the Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology, Professor Murtala Muhammad, said the appeal of Obi in the North during the 2023 election was mostly at the urban level among the youth and among citizens seeking alternatives to the major political parties.
“During the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi showed some electoral strength in parts of Northern Nigeria, especially in Abuja and among urban youths, middle-class voters and citizens who are dissatisfied with the traditional political establishment,” he said.
He said electoral trends indicated that Obi’s strongest support base remained outside the North.
“Electoral analyses show his northern vote share at around 14 per cent compared to over 40 per cent in Southern Nigeria,” said Muhammad.
He said while an alliance with Kwankwaso could boost Obi’s chances in Kano and parts of the North-West, it may not have a significant impact on the larger regional voting pattern.
“A possible alliance with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso could improve Obi’s competitiveness, especially in Kano with the Kwankwasiyya movement, but this does not automatically translate into mass support in the north,” he added.
He argued that across much of the North-West, voting behaviour is still shaped by religion, regional identity, party loyalty over time, and local politics.
Hence, many northern voters may still be hesitant to support Obi despite Kwankwaso’s endorsement, making it analytically inaccurate to assume that Kwankwaso’s northern identity alone can deliver the wider North-West voting bloc to Obi,” he said.
Also commenting on the development, Kano-based politician and State House of Assembly aspirant, Aminu Abdullahi Ibrahim, said Obi has been able to get more visibility among the northern youths than at the last election.
“I think Peter Obi has attained a certain level of popularity in some parts of northern Nigeria, particularly among young people, urban voters, Christians of the North-Central region and those Nigerians who are fed up,” Ibrahim said.
He argued, however, that Obi still faces strong political constraints in the core North-West states, where entrenched political structures continue to hold sway.
His popularity in the core North-West, especially in states like Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara, still remains limited relative to well-established northern political figures like Atiku Abubakar,” he added.
Ibrahim said that despite those limitations, a merger between both politicians could still create a stronger opposition platform than what existed in the 2023 election.
That said, if Peter Obi and Kwankwaso eventually form a political alliance ahead of future elections, it could make a difference from 2023,” he said.
Any serious challenge in 2027 would be on something more than popularity or online support, he said.
“They need strong grassroots mobilization, party cohesion, trusted local structures, balancing of religious and ethnic interests and ability to protect votes across polling units. “Even if Obi and Kwankwaso join forces, it will still be a huge task to turn the public enthusiasm into a national electoral victory,” said Ibrahim.
With coalition talks ongoing, analysts say the success of any Obi-Kwankwaso partnership may ultimately hinge on whether both politicians can translate their individual regional strengths into a truly national political movement that can compete across Nigeria’s diverse electoral landscape.
